Tuesday, 5 April 2011

Canadian Election: Predicting a Status Quo Parliament

Canada’s election a ho-hum
To this point in time the election is a giant ho-hum and according to the polls a repeat of the conditions that got us a minority government the last time seems to be in the cards again. It seems that we cannot manage to get ourselves out of the ho-hum patterns we have created in Ottawa. So despite a big yawn here’s some modest advice for our politicians and voters. 
Prime Minister Harper attacks coalitions of other political parties. How can he say this when his own party was cobbled together from the old Conservative Party and the Reform Party? If that hadn’t happened then the right wing in this country would have been fragmented and they would not even have a minority government they have at the moment.
How can Harper criticize what he himself did on a few years ago to unite the right. Sure he can and will do so relying on Canadians short memory spans concerning his own 2004 coalition plans with the NDP and the Bloc to defeat the Liberals. 

So what’s wrong with entertaining the joining of the Liberal Party and the NDP? To make politics in this country more interesting and useful we need to unite the middle and the modestly middle left into the New Liberal Party or perhaps it could be called the Liberal Democratic Party. This change would go a long way to chase away the ho-humness of the current status quo Canadian political scene.
Rolling up Quebec
If this was done then we would have a fight for government in this country. The only problem would be if each party split the vote almost evenly then the Bloc Quebecois may be the balance of power. The secret is rolling up Quebec  with an agenda that Quebeckers  can vote for.  In some ho-hum political minds that may mean playing with the old formulas like Meech Lake or some kind of special status for Quebec.
Personally I am opposed to any province or people getting a special status to remain in the Canadian confederation and I think its time that Canadians grow up on that issue. It’s time for the political parties to build a consensus in all provinces and clearly state that is their objective for Canada. Parties like the Bloc Quebecois are the product of old Canadian thinking by Quebeckers and the rest of us. Separate: what a passé idea that is and we need to state this clearly in all federalist Canadian political party platforms.
A mental Bloc
The Bloc represents all the angst of a divided Canada where the alleged hurts of history and culture are perpetuated through ho-hum election after ho-hum election. The result? We elect constant minority governments that have to play silly games in Ottawa to stay in power. It won’t matter whose minority is in power the same silliness and pettiness will go on and on. Worst yet if the current mood continues in Ottawa to stay in power parties will have to flirt with separatists.
The result? Canada gets no direction that has more than a two year planning horizon. It destroys any real building of the country and any real direction that we can all be proud of. And are we headed for the same thing? Well check these poll results below from yesterday. Most polls tell this sorry tale.

Over the rest of campaign, what will happen to the Conservatives' lead in the polls?

It will decrease a lot. 26.3%
It will increase a little. 25.6%
It will decrease a little. 20.9%
It will increase a lot. 19.2%
It will stay the same. 8.0%                       

Total Votes: n=1469
And examining polls today the following minority Parliament will be the result again. Conservatives 37%; Liberals 28.2 %; NDP 18.2%; Bloc 10%, Green 6% and others .9%That will yield a minority Conservative led parliament with the following seats per party. Conservatives: 143, Liberals 77, Bloc Quebecois 49, NDP 37, Others including the Green Party with maybe two seats. Truly a giant $300 million ho-hum that the taxpayers pick up for the cost of this election. 
Obviously if the Liberals and NDP formed a coalition it would provide that new entity with 114 seats using this scenario. The key is cracking the Bloc vote in Quebec if anyone is to get a majority. By the way a majority can be had in this parliament with 155 seats. If you examine the little poll above about whether the Conservatives will maintain a lead in the polls the 1469 people polled so far amount to 47.2% who see a decrease in Harper’s lead and 45.2% see an increase. Canadians are obviously not seeing any great swings at the moment for any party. However, the bottom line is  you can run this country with the approval of only 37 percent of Canadians voting for your political party and that’s sad.
© Copyright 2011, Tom Thorne, All Rights Reserved.

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