Thursday, 21 April 2011

Can the NDP growth in the polls translate into actual seats? Probably not.

There is some shift towards the Liberal and NDP parties and their eventual merger.
by Tom Thorne
In a previous story I suggested that a merger of the Liberal and NDP parties would be a good idea. A recent poll taken by Ekos seems to agree with this notion. As of 18-20 April when Ekos polled 2156 adult Canadians of which 1981 of them (91 percent) said they had decided who to vote for on May 2 the following results emerged.
Conservatives would get 34.4 percent. 24.7 percent would vote Liberal and 24.7 percent would vote for the NDP. The Greens would get 7.8, the Bloc 6.5 and other parties would get 1.9 percent. So combined the Liberals and NDP garner 49.4 percent of the popular vote. In our riding system these numbers never translate into seats so we must remain cautious. However what this shows once again is at the popular vote level 65.6 percent do not vote for the Conservatives.
The same poll in Quebec shows the following. The Bloc is down 3 percent (7 percent) from 10 percent the 2008 election. Similarly the Conservatives are down to 34 percent from 37.6 percent in 2008. The Green vote is up to 8 percent this time from 6.8 percent in 2008. The Liberals are down 1.2 percent from 2008 from 26.2 to the current 25 percent.  The NDP are growing in Quebec from 18.2 percent in 2008 to 25 percent as of today.
In Quebec as in the rest of the country the combined popular vote of the Liberals and NDP is 50 percent. Of course this still has to translate into won seats and with the NDP and the Liberals splitting seats everywhere the Conservatives come up the middle and rule Canada with a minority government getting 37 percent of the popular vote. No wonder the NDP seeks proportional representation as a reform of how we elect governments in this country.
If the Liberals and NDP merge then they would clean up ridings across the country. If they remain fractured then the centre party and the mild left as I call them are destined to lose seats and the same minority Conservative government will glide up the centre of all  elections results to win more seats. That can only be stopped by a Liberal NDP merger.
If we get the same results again all parties will be using the Bloc and its separatist agenda to stay in power. The people of Quebec need a reason to not vote Bloc this time and it is too late in this game plan for any sensible ideas like Liberal NDP mergers to be entertained but we can hope that Michael Ignatieff and Jack layton see the direction of the Canadian people in this election.
Also there is one other point. If Stephen Harper is denied another majority government by the people of Canada what will his personal political future be?  Certainly if there is a Liberal NDP merger for the next election in two years it is bleak. 

© Copyright 2011, Tom Thorne, All Rights Reserved

1 comment:

  1. I was wrong on this one. However the Liberal-NDP merger may still be in the cards as time heals all wounds.