Monday, 26 March 2012

The Iran Israel war. It's probably started long ago on the secret front.

The gloomy prospect of Iran-Israel hostilities over alleged nukes looms large.

Why Israel is likely to act against Iran soon.

by Tom Thorne
The current low key civil war in Syria is ultimately the end of the Assad regime. It is only a matter of time.  The Assad regime has lost its authority and credibility  to govern by using an over the top violent approach to dissonant voices. 
Add a ham fisted approach to constitutional reform to the agenda. Finally using the army pound its alleged dissonant citizens with artillery and mortar fire. The result is a death toll of probably 8,000 people. 
The fascist Ba'ath Party has ruled in both Syria and Iraq for a long time. In Iraq the Ba'ath Party ruler was the now deceased Saddam Hussein. In Syria Ba'ath remains under the control of the Assad family. 
The strength of the Ba'ath experience is that it brought a non-religious government to the middle east but it also brought brutal dictatorships as the price for keeping fundamentalist Muslim aspirations at bay. 
Since Iraq was oil rich this oppressive regime was encouraged by the western powers to keep anti-western groups under control. As a result the oil flowed to the west from Iraq.
The ultimate weakness of the Ba'ath Party is it uses brutal dictatorships to modernize both Syria and Iraq and tamp down Muslim fundamentalism. In true fascist form these governments rule with an iron hand. There is a  stability in place until they are overthrown or undermined. 
In the case of Iraq they experienced US military might and occupation for going too far muscling the Gulf emirates. Once the dictator is disposed as in the case of Saddam Hussein, chaos reigns. That is the case for Iraq and the the US involvement. It may also be the case in Syria after Assad falls.
The experience of post dictatorship chaos is also happening in Egypt, and to some degree in Libya.  Therefore don't expect that there will be some great need for democracy lurking ready to take over from dictatorship once these regimes fall. 
In Egypt the Army remains in control even after the recent parliamentary elections. The Egyptian Army tamps down the impact of the majority received at the polls by the Muslim Brotherhood's political party. The fall of the Mubarak regime has not appreciably changed the status quo 
in Egypt.
In Libya there is a political void as Libyans try to structure a new regime. In Syria a slow boil civil war has started and although the regime is supported by China and Russia its days are numbered. 
The rest of the Middle East wants the status quo to remain. However, change keeps happening everywhere. The Arab Spring? It's more like the Arab Chaos.
That brings us to Iran. Iran is a rogue state threatening to bring nuclear weapons on line in the Middle East. Israel is not about to tolerate this change in the military status quo. Israel the only power in the region with nuclear capability. That is their security ace in the hole.
From a real politick point of view taking out Iran's nuclear abilities is now on the table. It is now a viable option because the arab world is in a lot of turmoil and  not in a position to respond very well to an Israeli attack on Iran.
The Egyptian Army could not be brought into a fight. In addition, Egypt would first have to renounce the peace treaty it has with Israel. The consequences of that decision would mean hostility with Israel. That’s not a good idea at the moment. 
The Jordanians can't do very much alone. Syria is caught up in its internal issues. Libya is also not in a position to stop or contribute to fighting Israel. 
And Israel will simply tighten controls of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip and the West Bank if they take on Iran.  
So this leaves Israel in a position to slow the Iranian nuclear ambitions. It is a good time militarily to knock out Iran. The downside is that Israel can do this without too much fear of attack from surrounding arab states.  For that reason it may prove the moment to take out Iran's nuclear capabilities.
If there is no military attack on Iran's nuclear installations watch for Mossad (Israel's secret service) operations against senior Iranian nuclear technocrats and engineers working for Iran's nuclear program. They will all need a high level of security to go anywhere or leave Iran for any reason.
© Copyright 2012, Tom Thorne, All Rights Reserved

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