Moving towards the November US election despite Covid-19, while keeping tabs on the super power competition and ecological matters.

by Tom Thorne

The US-Canada border is still closed. There is no commitment to a reopening as the Covid-19 pandemic rolls on. The US numbers remain high. In Canada we are hovering on some careful reopening of the economy, parks and leisure activities. The Federal Government and each province are spending to save society from a total economic collapse. People largely remain at home as it sinks in that this will not end soon.

Yes, it is that bad. There seems to be no end in sight. Vaccines are in the works but with a long time line. That means we have to remain well by observing social distancing, wearing masks and curtailing our normal lives. The good thing is that the Federal Government and the provinces are all very civil to each other. Every politician wants to pull the country together which is a refreshing change from the acrimony before Covid-19.  It is practice time for ecological disasters that could be looming large in the near future. Maybe it’s a wake up call.

The US election for 2020 is six months out. Donald Trump is seeking a second term and the Democrats are running Joe Biden against him or so it would seem. Democrats need to firm up his candidacy and his running mate. In this situation anything on the edge of certainty is noticed as useful and gets attention. There is a sense of inevitable limbo where Donald Trump prevails without sufficient challenge.

After almost four years of Donald Trump it would seem reasonable that his daily excesses would kill his chances of a second term. As I write in May 2020, Trump’s botching of Covid-19 should ensure his November defeat. He has no real idea about what to do, and so he deflects this serious health crisis with vague notions of how the economy can be started up again by his wish fulfilment, rhetoric and by blaming others. 

Any Trump blame is going to the state governors, city mayors but never the White House. Congress votes $3 trillion for Covid-19 batting but are strangely silent on the issue itself. President Barack Obama in a recent convocation speech criticized Trump’s handling of Covid-19. However, not much from other politicians who need the federal government money in their fight tamping down Covid-19.

How could any President so incompetent be re-elected? Sadly he just may get back in as his peccadilloes go unnoticed by about a third of the US population. He has sown up far right people, freedom advocates who say owning a gun is how freedom is preserved, evangelical Christians, and Americans who believe in Make America Great Again. With his core support and the Electoral College system working hard for the status quo, Joe Biden has a steep climb to the White House. 

The mood underneath Trump’s support has not changed because of Covid-19 Trump’s base support like his views about getting back to work. Americans feel disenfranchised by both Republicans and Democrats. Clearing the political swamp still rings true for these people. Joe Biden does not seem to be the vital answer to pull Donald Trump off his pedestal. So it is all rather sad watching the US decline as the number one super power and primary defender of democracy subject to the whims of the Stable Genius.

What does it take to get the US electorate into a frame of mind where the excesses of Trump are realized as a march to something in the future that can tax the very core of US democracy? His supporters do not care. Frankly there is a kind of limbo all over the US that spells the inevitability of Donald Trump continuing as President.

The hung Congress is no help. Support also comes from the rich who get tax breaks when Trump is in power by running deficits and removing any hope of health care reform. It doesn’t matter in one recent case that a Covid-19 victim lost their employer’s health insurance with a layoff and now faces a huge bill for three weeks in hospital with no prospect of work. The freedom to go bankrupt for catching Covid-19.

Republicans slavishly watch the excesses of Donald Trump without any real comment and certainly not criticism. As a result he gathers more and more power by their inaction. This is especially true of Congressional Republicans. In addition, Democrats are frozen into some past that they are unable to define and articulate. That leaves Joe Biden with no fresh ideas and the ongoing prospect of no real change. The US is set on a self destructive course.  With either Trump or Biden as President the decline continues. Make America Great Again is hollow crowd pleasing rhetoric.

That self destructive course is much more amplified by Covid-19, but even without the virus this inevitable march to becoming second rate in the world would continue to happen. The attacks by Donald Trump on anything international, such as, imposing trade tariffs, climate change denial, suspending World Health Organization (WHO) funding, and speaking bad about NATO associations all continues. Add to this his constant roughing of Western allies is just simply confusing about what Trump’s objectives are other than playing to his base for November. Trump’s chummy interest in dictators like Putin, Xi and Kim Jong-un of North Korea is constant. Trump is setting the the world stage for US to lose its super power status. Covid-19 is simply hastening this process.  

Part 2: US Super Power Competition after Covid-19

Europe also lacks the political cohesion to make its $18 trillion combined GNP felt in these times. The Chinese GNP now stands at $15 Trillion US and somewhat curtailed by Covid-19. The US is at about $22 Trillion US. After Covid-19 drains treasuries dry the difference between China and the US’s GNP will be very close. China will now develop more as a super power with clout in the world as they promote totalitarian, anti democratic objectives and yet remain an expert at new technologies, trade and commerce, entrepreneurism and working with other countries by using economics and cross country global associations to gain and cement their influence. 

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) objectives are first, expand trade and commerce with a smile and tangentially  rid the world of democratic ideals. What nation or group of nations has the cohesion to thwart Chinese ambitions?  Trump’s hard nose trade tariff war with China just won’t do it.

Chinese skill in high technologies, trade and commerce will infiltrate western economies by divide and conquer routes.  In addition, rising Asian economies such was India will be integrated into the Chinese economy by installing Chinese controlled multinational companies in both countries with linked supply chains. Strategically their anti US and anti imperialism credentials will win the Chinese more access to Africa and Asia and the natural resources they possess. 

In all places their 5G and other technological communications  systems will become the standard and the AI aspects of these technologies will simply enable them to spy much better than before. The control of their own population is a key to understanding Chinese overseas global intelligence gathering objectives. The Chinese know that they are expanding in an information age and they are after knowledge while they plant propaganda to promote the objectives of the CCP.

The control  of the Covid-19 pandemic is the key to who comes out first in the super power stakes. Stopping Covid-19 is a major effort now of the all the world. The Chinese may hold the vaccine key to Covid-19 but it would be strategic for the West to have their own vaccines and treatments. Promising vaccine work is now underway between Chinese and Canadian organizations at this time are a double edged sword. Equally it would be useful if Western democracies and India realized the perilous pandemic situation we are now in has more to it than a major health issue. The outcome is a lot of geopolitical change and the expansion of CCP objectives through trade and humanitarian operations.

The geopolitical changes are superficially which country wins the super power stakes. However that may not matter as much while climate change and other pollution issues of neglecting our home planet surface more and more. Covid-19 in some ways is a result of unnatural selection. It is brought about in populous large urban areas, in this case China, that allows traditional live animal markets to exist in the core of large cities.

Four viruses have now emerged from China in recent times. This virus, like the others jumps species and is a result of changes to the natural environment. There is no immunity for humans just as there is no immunity from other ecological disasters. That makes what country becomes the up and coming super power a saviour as the crunch begins. Equally how important is Donald Trump in the big picture? If pandemics and uncontrolled ecological spiralling begins, and some think it already has, who has the focused geopolitical and economic power will be significant for our survival and economic status in the world now unfolding before us.  

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A smiling President Xi as the new Great Helmsman

China is no friend to democracies. 

The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) runs a strange mixture of social control and free enterprise. China is proof positive that a capitalist heart can be developed and set beating by top down authoritarian communist states operated by their party apparatchiks. 

China  can abandon central planned communist economic models to work out ways to enable capitalism and entrepreneurship to thrive as an integrated part of their totalitarian state. However social and political controls remain a CCP prerogative of its dictatorship. The bottom line is simply a police state can successfully  practice free enterprise. China’s second goal is to gain more respect on the world stage.

However, lurking below the surface of economic savvy is the ongoing need for China to control its 1.3 billion citizens. The Covid-19 lock down demonstrates the power of this state over its citizens to impose social distancing using the police and even security units to achieve it. 

The demonstrations like the recent US experiences  to lift the social distancing rules for Covid-19 would not be tolerated in China. In fact, saying anything remotely negative about the state is not allowed. Hong Kong demonstrations for democracy are left in a limbo as propaganda. It costs them little to establish how reasonable the CPP can be when underneath they are as hard as nails.

Cell phone apps are geared to keeping Chinese citizens on the CCP strait and narrow. President Xi’s thoughts are expressed in the Study The Great Nation App which quizzes users daily about the Chairman’s and the Communist Party’s policies awarding points to cell users for having the approved correct views in quizzes. It has been established that this App is monitored by internal security services.

A recent paper from a German security software firm Cure+53 reports that the App is monitored for CCP social and political compliance by Chinese citizens. The App is the contemporary electronic version of Chairman Mao’s Little Red Book used during the 1960s Cultural Revolution.

The creation of economic zones for business and industry also creates a control need for populations outside these zones who want to get in them for work. This has created a them and us problem where all Chinese are supposed to be equal. Outside of these zones much of China is still living on the economic edge. Large numbers of Chinese  remain in rural poverty compared to those living in the economic zones. 

As industry expands and wealth is built in China many people outside of the economic zones have been moved so that hydro electric dams and other giant projects can be built on spaces where traditional rural life went on as it has for centuries, oblivious to CCP economic plans. 

China has some big ideas about its status in the world. It wants to grow about eight percent each year. At the moment, and before Covid-19 it was on its way to generating $14.5 trillion GNP annually. The US has a $21+ trillion GNP before Covid-19. Clearly the Chinese are already in super power category. Of course the EU still generates $18 more trillion GNP. Japan has a $5 trillion GNP and Russia about $1.6 trillion. Canada about $1.7 trillion (all numbers in US dollars). The entire world GNP is $87 trillion each year.

China is determined to influence and be a major player in the world. The warfare is not a hot war but a propaganda and economic war.  Strategically China is set to take the world stage with some economic muscle even with Covid-19 and its inevitable economic downturn. China is emphasizing integration with other economies such as India which is growing economically to a $3 trillion GNP. India as a democracy is important because it has also 1.3 billion people. The US and other Western countries should be working more with India with much more investment. The Chinese do better as former victims of Western and even Japanese colonialism. Anti imperialism propaganda that also works well for the Chinese in Africa. 

Any hot war with India has now gone to back burner in favour of companies that work in both countries. By integrating economies with factories and software providers the Chinese are repeating what was done in North America and Europe they spread their influence. Now its Asia’s turn. This economic activity will build a giant GNP rivalling the US. Later they will restructure their activities in Africa to include industrialization rather than simply obtaining that continent’s natural resources.

Much of the industrial expansion planned by China will be done by their control of new technologies markets. Ultimately their internal and foreign subsidiary industries are beholding to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and its control over everything. Chinese companies are required by regulation to report intelligence gathered abroad to the Chinese State. Chinese studying abroad are also subject to becoming part of the intelligence gathering apparatus. Good jobs come to those who cooperate with the objectives of the CCP when they return home.

China is ruthless in its pursuit of economic growth. It has been accused of intellectual property theft, unfair trade practices, providing subsidies to its industry, building trade barriers and keeping their currency at a low value. Their policy is to be aggressive and relentless. Information technology is a major thrust of China to achieve the goals of the CCP. 

They want to install 5G and AI controls of this technology across the world. This network of installations that they plan for the world will enable them to extend their authoritarian systems from China outwards and bring in useful intelligence and knowledge from the world. They understand the Internet as a way to know what the rest of the world is doing and then they can fill the gaps taking control of the global economic agenda.      -30-

 

Disease pandemics and change

Disease is the great leveller in history. The Great Plague of 1348-50 swept across Europe strangely also from an Italian landing from the orient much like covid-19. By the time it was finished as much as fifty percent of the population had died. As the fourteenth century went on, labour was always in short supply.  Labour remained after the plague still bonded to the land as serfs. Slowly peasants left the estates of their masters for greener pastures. The attraction of leaving traditional lives was the price of their labour was much higher and more valued elsewhere. It also was paid in real cash rather than produce and a cottage. The Peasant’s Revolt in late 14th century England was in part a result of the plague’s horrific economic work on the population. Survivors wanted simply to be more valued by their society.

As Europe began to change due to labour shortages in the 14th Century so we can expect changes yet unrecognized to be the result of the covid-19 pandemic.

Governments are now printing money to ensure social distancing is practiced and to give people who have to stay homes an income. The social dislocation of covid-19 is already apparent. When its over what can we expect? Will everything be quickly forgotten and everyone will return to the pre plague status quo? Perhaps we can learn from the social changes of 14th century peasants or even those who went through the Great Depression followed by World War 2.

Think of the covid-19 experiences as a result of our globalization of industry and multinational entrepreneurial companies some owned by states such as China. Western corporations in search of cheaper labour built incredible connections with China and other low wage oriental countries to manufacture goods. The world becomes integrated in its supply lines creating economic interdependence that can be tested hard when human interactions probably out of a live animal market spread a virus capable of creating a pandemic.

Trump’s USA has been pulling back from globalization using the retro conservative notions that US jobs were lost to lower wages and costs in the orient and Mexico and must now be restored. Meanwhile the alleged lower wage areas of the world have become much more technologically sophisticated and have run with the high technology manufacturing plus lower wage costs. In short they are competitive and qualitatively excellent a double whammy for the West.

What no one saw in all of this globalism was the rise of the unexpected such as covid-19. Warnings in the past with SARS and other infections originating in China were not like this experience and so when they were solved or dissipated  the experiences went on the back burner of industrial globalization and the political advantages of getting back to normal.

Covid-19 is not like the previous experiences with oriental infections. It is earth shaking and a wake up call that before it is over can and will have serious economic costs. With global finance and stock markets now in disarray and countries printing money and cheques to their citizens to maintain the economy, the price of this experience is profound. The downturn and the eventual advantages to China as the second biggest world economy are yet to be felt. 

It could mean that run away globalization is in the crosshairs of change. It may generate more insular economics across the world and it may be the creation of an economy that doesn’t pollute and create other lurking storms such as climate change. China and the West have been taken back to a new start line. China seems to be recovering from covid-19 and so it could be at the new economic start line first.

On the positive side this  experience will generate new applications of super computing and artificial intelligence to analyze and anticipate and quickly conquer viral attacks. This work has already discovered the genetics of covid-19 in record time. At MIT early human trials and tests for a covid-19 vaccine start on 8 April 2020. The new arms race may be information intensive viral counter measures.

A vaccine will still take at least a year and probably more time. The economic cost of this is high as we wait and try to stamp on covid-19 with measures that have a high economic downturn cost to the West. 

However artificial intelligence systems at IBM have already found 8000 chemical associations that can be used to create  anti-viral medicines for covid-19. This kind of information intensive work needs to be funded to take medicine and pharmaceuticals to new levels of efficiency. It is a new medicine and pharmacology in development.

In this exercise big pharma living in its global business model is going to have to explore  how they can make this happen or move out of the way for a new public interest method of creating drug and vaccine solutions. It is very likely that artificial intelligence analysis can lower the start up costs of drugs, vaccines and treatments. 

The economic war with China has intensified as globalization ideas drop in the West as counter productive. Less reliance on cheap goods and low wages may be seen as strategically unsound for business and Western states. Countering disasters of climate and germs may now take the centre stage because they create widespread economic chaos that is unacceptable.

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